Things can change. And things do. Many
like to say that, “the only thing constant is change,” which is
not only hyperbole, but wrong. Lots of things are constant. God will
always exist, and until Jesus comes back, so will idiots, taxes,
politicians, mold, I could go on. But I'm trying to save time on this
post.
Just after even two years away from
Seattle I came back and found so many things different. The hipsters
all upgraded their iPhones to iPads. Next time I go back, I expect
the technology to be integrated directly into their iFlannel. Even
the things you don't quite expect. Lots of stop signs got run where
there used to be no stop sign, causing me to be on the receiving end
of lots of one-fingered salutes. Also, for some reason, they now sell
cans of pop in 8oz sizes. I guess it is so you can make your kids
feel inadequate when you give then an 8oz coke when you're working on
the normal 12oz size. I'll say once again. There is nothing fun about
fun-size portions. You may say the small size is for portion control,
but all I hear is that your portion needs to be zero.
Here in Mozambique, lots of things
changed too, just in the two months and found so many things
different. The baker I buy my bread from (and made the best bread in
the bairro) decided to hang it up and retire, leaving an empty
feeling in my stomach and my soul. The soccer field down the road now
has a curb separating it from the street so no more cars drive
through your game. There was also a whole block of houses that got
torn down to make room for a wider road.
Which brings me to the other big change
I noticed: Cement prices.
You see, those houses being torn down
are part of a huge project to bring the main highway in our province
out of the 17th century and in to the modern era. As you take the
road either direction it is full of potholes, ditches, huge unpaved
stretches, and is so narrow that if you want to pass another car one
wheel is going on unpaved shoulder, which is many times where people
are walking. But, as soon as you cross into the next province the
road becomes a beautiful two full lanes wide with a shoulder,
stripes, reflectors, and even roadsigns. Well, this (and many other
roads) are finally getting a desperately needed upgrade.
The problem is that this project, and
other which will end up paving thousands of miles of roads, are doing
havoc to prices. Actually, you could see it coming because cement is
one of the items that is not price-controlled (unlike the necessities
of bread, gasoline, beer...) and as such is subject to the laws of
supply and demand. And with the government needing thousands of tons
of cement, the domestic cement factory can't keep up, forcing a
greater reliance on imported cement.
And, as “luck” would have it, the
cement factory announced that it has a problem and output would be
dropping and prices would be going up. That second part was not part
of of the press release, but it happened all the same.
As a result, folks down in the cozy
capital of Maputo are whining because there cement has “shot up”
from 200mets a sack to 230mets a sack, and increase of 15%. Here
where we are, it went from about 260mets all the way up to 410 a sack
(almost 60%). And as we are about three steps down the line,
transport costs and middlemen bring the price up.
[Folks in the know say that the cement
company is (duh) manipulating prices because they understand that the
gov't did not negotiate a price prior to starting they can change the
price as much as they want and get paid. This will continue till the
end of next year when the projects come to a close.]
Ok, so cement is not a major economic
indicator. But food is though. And food is gonna start getting
ridiculous!
When I left in June, a cheaply priced
sack of cornflour was going about 200meticais (about $8) a sack, and
better quality (less bugs in the cornmeal, doesn't spoil as fast)
would be about 300meticais a sack. Coming back in two months, the
prices had doubled. Yes, doubled. Now you can't find anything for
less that 400meticais ($16).
And cornflour is everything here. There
are not many food options, so think of it as ONLY having meat and
potatoes, except cornflour is the potatoes. Oh, and there is no meat,
Most people are eating beans or spinach.
The reason for the jump in cornflour
prices is not because the government is buying it all up, it's
because there is none. Last year, Russia made barely noticed
headlines (unless you follow that sort of thing) because of huge
wildfires destroying most of their grain output. (Corn is a grain,
just like wheat or barley or oats. It's not a veggie. Surprise!) Last
year, Russia did not export grain as a precaution. But that's okay,
because they were only the third biggest exporter of grains
worldwide. The market wouldn't be horrible unless there was a drought
in the US, the worlds largest exporter, and millions and millions of
tons just dried up in the summer sun—OH WAIT THAT TOTALLY HAPPENED!
So Russia loses their crop. Then the US
loses much of their crop. Now we are screwed. As in all around
screwed.
As most staple commodities rise, they
signal the rise of pretty much everything else. As you can imagine,
when farmers are all of a sudden having to spend twice as much to
feed themselves, they need to sell their beans for more so they can
feed themselves. Well, then the person selling spinach also raises
prices so they can afford beans, and then you can see where this is
going...
And traditionally, we haven't even hit
“the hungry months” in February and January where prices usually
inflate from 20-60% because of a lack of food between harvest
seasons. And domestic production doesn't come close to filling the
need. Mozambique is able to produce only 5% of the corn it consumes.
Not a great ratio.
Such is life living in a volatile,
import dependent market place. I'll keep you posted on any updates
on wild swings in the prices.
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